A Study of Factors Affecting the Short-term Movement of the Thai Baht vs. the US Dollar

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University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. Journal Editorial Office
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Chulalongkorn University Printing House
University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce
Date Issued
2010
ISSN
0125-2437
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Text::Journal::Journal article
Abstract
The objective of this research is to study the factors that affect the short-termmovement of the Thai baht exchange rate against the US dollar. The factorsconsidered are international reserves, the Libor-interest rate, past trends of the Thaibaht and changes in U.S. dollar value in the world money market. All the factorsstudied are monthly averaged secondary data from 2003 to 2007. The result frommultiple regression analysis shows that the four factors considered affect themovement of the Thai baht with high confidence interval statistics testing (95%);R2 = 0.964, R2adjust = 0.961, F-test = 4.401 etc., and this model can forecast theThai baht short-term trend. In addition, using Fundamental, Technical and SentimentalAnalysis can lead to the construction of an effective forecasting instrument.
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Journal
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University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce
Bibliographic Citation
Taninrat Rattanapongpinyo (2010) A Study of Factors Affecting the Short-term Movement of the Thai Baht vs. the US Dollar. University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Journal Vol.30 No.1.
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