JEO: Conference Papers

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Browsing JEO: Conference Papers by Author "Balun, Pairote"

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    The Planning and Forecasting Problemsfor Banknote Management
    (University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, 2007)
    Balun, Pairote
    Under the Bank of Thailand’s new banknote circulation scheme, banknotes are distributed from the Note Printing Works to 11 banknote management centers, each of which serves multiple cash centers of the commercial banks. Meanwhile, each of those cash centers serves multiple bank branches, which provide cash-related services to the individual customers. We focused on the planning and forecasting problems of the supply chain of Thai banknotes, especially those confronting the central bank.The planning and forecasting problems for banknote management have interesting elements, features and requirements. Some of those requirements are the responsiveness and efficiency of production and distribution planning and the exceptional service level that the central bank provides to the commercial banks. In practice, there are three planning and forecasting problems. They are the problems of demand forecasting, distribution planning and production planning. We proposed solutions to these problems. The solutions themselves can then be developed into a web-based software for banknote management.To solve the demand forecasting problem, we standardized the forecasting procedures that were used previously. The techniques that we considered include regression, moving average, and time-series analysis. For the distribution problem, we considered both inventory and transportation costs in order to determine the optimal frequencies and lot sizes for banknote distribution to the banknote management centers. These economic order quantity analyses and results from the forecasting problem then lead to a banknote distribution plan. Finally, we used data on lead times, production calendar, machine availability, process capacity and production line setting to develop a banknote production plan.
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